The San Francisco 49ers start their path to the Super Bowl odds in the NFL Divisional Round, set as sizable favorites in the Divisional Round odds when they host the upstart Green Bay Packers tonight.
San Francisco got to sit back and watch Wild Card Weekend live up to its name, thanks in large part to Green Bay smashing the Dallas Cowboys as road underdogs.
The Cheeseheads hit the highway for the second straight game, taking on the NFC’s top seed but a Niners team with a recent history of coming up short in the postseason. Does Green Bay have another upset in it, or is this finally the year for Kyle Shanahan’s squad?
I break down the NFL odds for this NFC Divisional Round matchup and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Packers vs. 49ers on January 20.
Be sure to also check out our Packers vs. 49ers prop picks and spotlight picks for Christian McCaffrey odds!
Packers vs 49ers odds
Packers vs 49ers predictions
Defending Kyle Shanahan’s offense is very much a “pick your poison” proposition for opponents. The 49ers have a toy box of playmakers on this depth chart, including receiver Brandon Aiyuk.
Aiyuk finished the regular season with a bang. While he was limited in play during the meaningless Week 18 finale, he posted efforts of 113, 114, and 126 yards in three of the four prior games.
Aiyuk is set up for another big day in the Divisional Round. He faces a Packers pass defense that splits time between zone and man but ran a predominantly deep zone coverage against the Cowboys last week.
The Niners’ WR ranks among the elite versus both coverages at PFF.com but is the No. 3 rated receiver against zone coverage. Aiyuk averages 17.1 yards per reception against zone and the Packers have been susceptible to big plays while running zone schemes.
Aiyuk is a unique receiver as well, with the speed to break away deep downfield and the size and strength to muscle his way into space underneath. In fact, that’s his preferred place to operate, which is bad news for the Packers who have had their zone defense blown up from the middle (26th in middle deep yardage allowed).
“Anytime you get to go across the middle, you get chances for big exposure plays,” Aiyuk told reporters. “And the way that Brock (Purdy) is able to see it and throw it on time and pace, it just makes for good offense. So, really, anywhere on the field, I’m trying to catch the football. But I think through the middle of the field, we’ve definitely got some work in through there.”
The Cheeseheads, who finished 23rd in EPA allowed per dropback and 31st in success rate allowed per dropback, will possibly be down their top pass defender in corner Jaire Alexander. He reaggravated an ankle injury on Sunday and now has a short week to heal up for Saturday night.
The Brandon Aiyuk odds for Saturday night have his receiving yard total at 67.5 yards. This number opened as low as 62.5 yards at some sportsbooks and instantly took money on the Over, driving it up another five yards.
Player projections for the Divisional Round call for a bigger performance from Aiyuk, with some models as high as 84 yards and the floor being 74 yards. My number came out to 79 yards, which puts us well past the Over — even at the larger prop total.
Game script and spread would also play into a big offensive effort from San Francisco, with the line flirting with double digits and the total above 50 points.
My best bet: Brandon Aiyuk Over 67.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel) 50% live boost availablePicks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Packers vs 49ers same-game parlay
Brandon Aiyuk Over 67.5 receiving yards49ers HT/FTUnder 50.5No-sweat promo available
+436 at FanDuel
Aiyuk is a home run hitter who can rough up the Packers secondary without Alexander.
San Francisco is a fast starter and one of the best first half teams. The Niners will hold a halftime lead and cruise to the win at home.
This total feels tall, especially with the way the 49ers can grind out gains on the ground and milk the clock. Game script says San Francisco should be protecting a solid lead in the final 30 minutes.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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